5:00 pm Update on Tropical Storm Gordon

Good evening, friends. It's been almost 10 years to the day since my last update but I thought this particular storm warranted a little more scrutiny for my colleagues on the northern Gulf Coast. After hearing from a few of you asking for my expertise, I have decided to come out of retirement.

There have been some rumblings over the past week that an upper level low would form over the Bahamas and it would be a possible cause for concern. My brother in law happened to be in the Bahamas with his family on vacation and was able to give me some early observations that helped to formulate my thought process. He mentioned to me an abundance of cumulonimbus clouds and increasing winds from the East and Southeast. His helpful tip was the nudge I needed to take a deeper look. After some exhaustive examination of local radar, satellite imagery and a look at the European model it was evident this would develop.

*On a side note, he said the water was beautiful and the snorkeling was ideal prior to this development. He recommends Harbour Island for a family vacation.

Subsequently, a Tropical Storm Watch was later issued as these storms started to formulate and push to the eastern portion of South Florida. At this point it was clear that Gordon was experiencing rapid organization and intensification as wind shear was decreasing and conditions were present for a storm to develop. The vorticity (is that a word?) was astonishing and a red alert as to what would certainly form.

Fast forward to Monday and now everyone is on high alert. Stop me if you've heard this before but a Hurricane Warning has been issued from Morgan City, Louisiana to the Florabama. This storm will move quickly once it reaches the Gulf of Mexico and quickly organize once it reaches the fertile waters off of the Florida coast. A West to Northwest track is imminent so keep an eye on weakening wind shear coming from the Alabama and Florida Gulf Coast which would also be a cause for concern due to rapid strengthening.

Now down to the meat and potatoes. Where will it hit and will I need to take a day off of work? This is exactly what I get paid for. I'll call for a landfall around Dauphin Island early Wednesday morning and quickly move inshore.

What does this mean? Pick up your shrimp nets and crab traps, move your boats, fill your bathtub with hot water in case water becomes contaminated, make sure tires have adequate air pressure if you need to evacuate and keep valuables in the top drawer of a dresser if you are in danger of flooding.

Stay tuned for a possible update tomorrow. Availability pending.

Forecast for Tropical Storm Hanna

Topical Storm Hanna should begin to make a northwesterly turn towards the Bahamas, Turks and Caicos, as well as the eastern edge of Cuba. As it meanders up the eastern seaboard, the coast of Georgia, South Carolina, and southern North Carolina should be on their toes.

A friend of mine attempted to schedule a tee time at the Cloisters in St. Simons and was rebuffed by the receptionist in the pro shop. She stated that the head groundskeeper was anticipating significant action towards the end of the week. My initial guess is that they will be on the western edge of Hurrican Hanna but will escape the brunt of the storm.

If I am a resident of Hilton Head. Kiawah Island, or Tybee Beach I would be initiating a good hurricane preparedness plan. Also in the cone of probability is Savannah, GA and Charleston, SC. A good plan includes ample supplies of water, canned goods, batteries, a NOAA Weather Radio, cash or travelers checks, as well as gasoline. Hurricane Hanna should make an impact in South Carolina and travel inland towards North Carolina late Friday or Saturday. My first forecast calls for Hanna to escalate to a Category 2 storm before landfall. I believe that it will hit the coast as a low Category 2 or high Category 1 hurricane.

As always, I will be keeping an eye on the tropics and keeping in constant contact with my sources. Until next time,

Eye in the Sky

Hurricane Gustav Wrap Up

Not a bad first week's worth of work. 6 days out I predicted that the storm would hit Boothville, LA on Monday morning. It actually hit about 40 miles to the west in Co

Blast from the Past

I thought I'd post one of my old sketches to break the tension of the upcoming wave of storms. The year was 2006 and this classic "Blown Call" allowed Auburn to steal one from LSU.

What in the name of John Hope is going on in the Tropics?

All of you weather fanatics will remember the late Dr. John Hope from his long time service at the Weather Channel. As the chief meteorologist he was always at the center of tropical discussion. Since his passing, we have seen the likes of Dr. Steve Lyons, the pompous Jim Cantore, and the lovable and beautiful face of the Weather Channel, Stephanie Abrams. We all know Dr. Hope would be burning the wheels of his wheel chair if he was still rolling around the studios in Atlanta. This forecast is dedicated to him.

My forecast has not really changed since Tuesday. My conversations and observations still lead me to believe that Boothville, LA is under the gun. The small town near Venice, along with all of Plaquemines Parish, should be under an immediate evacuation in my opinion. This is shaping up to be a knock out blow to a region that was ravaged by Hurricane Katrina just 3 years ago.

Back to my forecast and my reasoning. I cooked spaghetti last night and in an unscientific test run, I threw 8 wet noodles at a map of the Southeast. It was stunning how much they were in agreement with my thoughts. If you've seen the NHC model runs the past few days you will recognize these projections. The illustration is at the top.

As for Hanna, I'm not ready to make a forecast. It is following a line similar to Gustav and I will be keeping my eye on this one. For the time being my focus is on Gustav.

I hope everyone in the potential target areas has a hurricane preparedness plan in order. I'll be updating on Sunday when I return from a trip to Atlanta. Roll Tide and everyone have a great weekend.

Eye in the Sky

Hurricane Gustav Update

Heard some chit chat at the water cooler after lunch today and here are my updated thoughts:

a.) It will rapidly intensify when it reaches the Gulf of Mexico. My "guess" (that's for Mustang Man) is that it will increase to a Category 4 storm by Sunday evening before landfall on Monday. By the time it reaches land it will decrease to a strong Category 2 or light Category 3 storm.

b.) My thought on landfall has not changed. Here is my prediction:

1. Boothville, LA
2. Newton, KS
3. Biloxi, MS
4. Pensacola, FL
5. Cape Hatteras, NC
6. Mobile Bay, AL

I'm off to happy hour to see if I can gather any more info. I should have my next forecast and prediction late tomorrow afternoon. Enjoy weather denizens!!!

Hurricane Gustav

Boy, things sure are heating up in the tropics. Just after Tropical Storm Fay's remnants push off to the northeast, it appears that there is another storm following in her footstep's. What does this mean for your work week forecast following Labor Day? It's too early to tell.

Along with other amateur weather aficionado's, I will be keeping my eyes on this storm as it continues it's path across Haiti and Cuba. Gustav will be traversing through mountainous terrain over the next 36-48 hours and stands to weaken considerably. However, the Gulf of Mexico is ripe for intensification when Gustav reenters open water. Water temperatures remain in the mid to upper 80's in much of the gulf and there is very little in the way of wind sheer. Further development is imminent and a U.S. landfall is very likely.

Most meteorologists won't put their nuts on the line and make a prediction this early in the game. I am not most meteorologists though. I have a small weather station and no professional accreditation. My gut feeling tells me that Boothville, LA is under the gun. That is my initial feeling and I will update as I talk to and hear other opinions.

Until tomorrow,

Eye in the Sky