Blast from the Past

I thought I'd post one of my old sketches to break the tension of the upcoming wave of storms. The year was 2006 and this classic "Blown Call" allowed Auburn to steal one from LSU.

What in the name of John Hope is going on in the Tropics?

All of you weather fanatics will remember the late Dr. John Hope from his long time service at the Weather Channel. As the chief meteorologist he was always at the center of tropical discussion. Since his passing, we have seen the likes of Dr. Steve Lyons, the pompous Jim Cantore, and the lovable and beautiful face of the Weather Channel, Stephanie Abrams. We all know Dr. Hope would be burning the wheels of his wheel chair if he was still rolling around the studios in Atlanta. This forecast is dedicated to him.

My forecast has not really changed since Tuesday. My conversations and observations still lead me to believe that Boothville, LA is under the gun. The small town near Venice, along with all of Plaquemines Parish, should be under an immediate evacuation in my opinion. This is shaping up to be a knock out blow to a region that was ravaged by Hurricane Katrina just 3 years ago.

Back to my forecast and my reasoning. I cooked spaghetti last night and in an unscientific test run, I threw 8 wet noodles at a map of the Southeast. It was stunning how much they were in agreement with my thoughts. If you've seen the NHC model runs the past few days you will recognize these projections. The illustration is at the top.

As for Hanna, I'm not ready to make a forecast. It is following a line similar to Gustav and I will be keeping my eye on this one. For the time being my focus is on Gustav.

I hope everyone in the potential target areas has a hurricane preparedness plan in order. I'll be updating on Sunday when I return from a trip to Atlanta. Roll Tide and everyone have a great weekend.

Eye in the Sky

Hurricane Gustav Update

Heard some chit chat at the water cooler after lunch today and here are my updated thoughts:

a.) It will rapidly intensify when it reaches the Gulf of Mexico. My "guess" (that's for Mustang Man) is that it will increase to a Category 4 storm by Sunday evening before landfall on Monday. By the time it reaches land it will decrease to a strong Category 2 or light Category 3 storm.

b.) My thought on landfall has not changed. Here is my prediction:

1. Boothville, LA
2. Newton, KS
3. Biloxi, MS
4. Pensacola, FL
5. Cape Hatteras, NC
6. Mobile Bay, AL

I'm off to happy hour to see if I can gather any more info. I should have my next forecast and prediction late tomorrow afternoon. Enjoy weather denizens!!!

Hurricane Gustav

Boy, things sure are heating up in the tropics. Just after Tropical Storm Fay's remnants push off to the northeast, it appears that there is another storm following in her footstep's. What does this mean for your work week forecast following Labor Day? It's too early to tell.

Along with other amateur weather aficionado's, I will be keeping my eyes on this storm as it continues it's path across Haiti and Cuba. Gustav will be traversing through mountainous terrain over the next 36-48 hours and stands to weaken considerably. However, the Gulf of Mexico is ripe for intensification when Gustav reenters open water. Water temperatures remain in the mid to upper 80's in much of the gulf and there is very little in the way of wind sheer. Further development is imminent and a U.S. landfall is very likely.

Most meteorologists won't put their nuts on the line and make a prediction this early in the game. I am not most meteorologists though. I have a small weather station and no professional accreditation. My gut feeling tells me that Boothville, LA is under the gun. That is my initial feeling and I will update as I talk to and hear other opinions.

Until tomorrow,

Eye in the Sky